What are the Odds?

When you decide to pursue fertility treatments, the doctor warns you that your odds for conceiving multiples are increased. For the treatment I was using, they told me that I had a 20% chance for twins and a 5% chance for triplets. They didn't even give me a figure for anything higher than triplets, because it was small enough to be negligible. I later found out that if you are using fertility treatments, the odds for conceiving quintuplets is 1 in 56,000. Even if I had known that statistic upfront, I am sure I would not have been concerned--after all, no one ever thinks that they are going to be the "one". (With the exception of lottery players, who all expect to the "one").

To put these odds in perspective, I looked up a few other interesting odds:

Odds of being hit by lightening in your lifetime: 1 in 3000
Odds of injury from mowing the lawn: 1 in 3623
Odds of being audited by the IRS: 1 in 175
Odds of dating a supermodel: 1 in 88,000
Odds of catching a ball at a major league baseball game: 1 in 563
Odds of becoming a pro athlete: 1 in 22,000
Odds of striking it rich on Antiques Roadshow: 1 in 60,000

Our next ultrasound is tomorrow and we are hoping that they will be able to determine the gender of the babies. Because I am a numbers geek (otherwise known as a statistician), I calculated the odds for each of the possible gender combinations.

5 boys, 0 girls: 1 in 32
4 boys, 1 girl: 5 in 32
3 boys, 2 girls: 10 in 32
2 boys, 3 girls: 10 in 32
1 boy, 4 girls: 5 in 32
0 boys, 5 girls: 1 in 32

Ideally, I would like to have some of each, a 3/2 split. The odds are pretty good (about 62.5% probability) that this will be the case. However, based on my historical ability to beat the odds, I am not placing any bets!


Note: For more interesting odds, visit http://www.funny2.com/odds.htm

What are the Odds?